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Housing Forecast November 28, 2017

BCREA’s 4th Quarter 2017 Housing Forecast is entitled Strong Economy Versus Housing Headwinds.  They are forecasting that due to rising interest rates and the new mortgage stress test for mortgages with 20% or more down payment a return to pretty much balanced markets in 2018. This is augmented by an increase in new home construction and a pulling back of the economy from 3.8% increase in GDP projected this year to 2.8% for 2018.

For the VIREB area (Malahat north) the forecast for single family homes for 2018 is a 2.4% increase in price. They have revised their 2017 forecast to 14.5%, which appears that it will be accurate. Last fall their forecast was for a 2% increase over 2017, which turn out to be quite off the mark. The government changes announced in the fall of 2016 had little effect on the markets on the Island.

Low inventory levels continue to be the story for Vancouver Island where we are running under 50% of the 2008 to 2014 average. This graph shows the inventory history for the VIREB area for September. Until that inventory levels rises there will be upward pressure on price.

While the report mentions it, I do not believe BCREA is weighing the inventory levels or the amount of people coming out here to retire enough, over 50% of the buyers are purchasing for retirement and close to 50% are from off the Island.  Unless the mortgage stress test will have a larger effect than I am anticipating I believe the increases will be between 5-7% for VIREB and higher for the eastern markets, Duncan to Campbell River.

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     About Gerry

Information and Interpretation
Selling or buying real estate is a major financial endeavour with many factors to consider. While you have a wealth of information available to you on the internet, interpreting that information is another matter.

This is where I come in. Not only do I research and provide you the information you need, I take it to the next level and analyze and interpret that  information for you. I will tell you what I think, what we do is up to you.


As a client, your Realtor works for you, and this is a principle I hold dear.  I see my job as providing you with information, interpretation, services and guidance, not to push you on a course of action.

Unparalleled Service
I have a simple code, I don't sell, I service. I assume my clients are perfectly able to make their own decision once they have the information they need. I spend my time providing information, guiding people through the process, and making sure all the bases are covered, not in high pressure sales.

Over the years I have received very complementary feedback from clients. See Client Feedback.

Integrity
Integrity, simply defined, is being honest and fair. This is further enhanced by one of a Realtor's prime duties, which is not to put anyone's interest above their clients, including their own.  This a duty I take very seriously. My personal outlook after over 30 years in business, is that whenever I experience high pressure sales I start to question the integrity of the person selling me.  Are they looking after my best interest or theirs?

Gerry Chwelos, REALTOR®

PEMBERTON HOLMES LTD.

Tel: 250-8975465

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